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Nacional Potosí vs Blooming Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 18 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 00:00

Nacional Potosí

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Blooming

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.3%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-111.1%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.7%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 66.7% 1.50 -20.5%

Draw 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -1.7%

Away win 22.7% 18.2% 5.50 +14.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 63.7% 1.57 -15.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 42.0% 2.38 -24.8%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 65.4% 1.53 -23.6%

Away O1.5 25.6% 29.4% 3.40 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.6%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional Potosí1.8

Blooming0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL POTOSÍ · PPG 2.00

BLOOMING · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nacional Potosí (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.7%

Blooming (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional Potosí face Blooming in Bolivia - Primera División on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional Potosí a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Blooming 23%, so Nacional Potosí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nacional Potosí and 0.9 for Blooming (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional Potosí are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Blooming. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Nacional Potosí vs Blooming Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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