Today / Bolivia - Primera División / Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:15

Aurora

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.2%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-110.9%1-24.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.8%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 66.7% 1.50 -20.5%

Draw 24.1% 25.6% 3.90 -3.6%

Away win 22.9% 20.0% 5.00 +8.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.4% 1.44 -22.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 50.0% 2.00 -36.6%

BTTS 52.9% 66.7% 1.50 -20.6%

Home O1.5 49.9% 71.4% 1.40 -30.1%

Away O1.5 24.2% 33.3% 3.00 -16.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora1.8

Gualberto Villarroel SJ0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 1.62

GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.6%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Gualberto Villarroel SJ in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Gualberto Villarroel SJ 23%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aurora and 0.8 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.50 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.8%.

Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions