Today / Bolivia - Primera División / The Strongest vs Real Tomayapo

The Strongest vs Real Tomayapo Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 21:15

The Strongest

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Tomayapo

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 81% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-11.9%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.8%1-15.4%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-17.7%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.1%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.6%4+-110.8%4+-23.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.1% 83.3% 1.20 -15.9%

Draw 15.9% 18.2% 5.50 -7.5%

Away win 14.0% 7.7% 13.00 +49.2%

Over 2.5 65.0% 73.5% 1.36 -11.6%

Over 3.5 44.8% 54.6% 1.83 -18.0%

BTTS 50.4% 57.1% 1.75 -11.8%

Home O1.5 77.9% 82.0% 1.22 -5.0%

Away O1.5 15.4% 22.2% 4.50 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -28.6%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob50.4%

H 70% / xG 2.9-0.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 3–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 5.4%

#4 4–0 8.7%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The Strongest2.9

Real Tomayapo0.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

THE STRONGEST · PPG 1.88

REAL TOMAYAPO · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

81%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.26 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

The Strongest (H) 70.1%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -15.9%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -7.5%

Real Tomayapo (A) 14.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +49.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

The Strongest face Real Tomayapo in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The Strongest a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Real Tomayapo 14%, so The Strongest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for The Strongest and 0.6 for Real Tomayapo (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The Strongest are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.67 for Real Tomayapo.

The Strongest vs Real Tomayapo Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions