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Oriente Petrolero vs Always Ready Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Oriente Petrolero

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Always Ready

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.5%0-25.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.8%1-112.7%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.5%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.2%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 38.2% 2.62 +18.2%

Draw 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -9.2%

Away win 30.0% 44.4% 2.25 -32.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.4% 1.44 -22.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 47.6% 2.10 -33.4%

BTTS 55.7% 71.4% 1.40 -22.0%

Home O1.5 39.3% 50.0% 2.00 -21.4%

Away O1.5 33.5% 57.8% 1.73 -42.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.7%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oriente Petrolero1.3

Always Ready1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 2.38

ALWAYS READY · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oriente Petrolero (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +18.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.2%

Always Ready (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oriente Petrolero face Always Ready in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oriente Petrolero a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Always Ready 30%, so Oriente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Oriente Petrolero and 1.2 for Always Ready (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oriente Petrolero are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 2.00 for Always Ready.

Oriente Petrolero vs Always Ready Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions