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ABB vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 18 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 21:15

ABB

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universitario de Vinto

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.1%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.9%1-17.7%1-24.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-17.8%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-18.5%4+-24.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 59.5% 1.68 -5.1%

Draw 19.8% 25.3% 3.95 -13.1%

Away win 23.6% 25.6% 3.90 -4.8%

Over 2.5 66.8% 70.4% 1.42 -5.1%

Over 3.5 44.9% 48.8% 2.05 -8.0%

BTTS 61.5% 70.4% 1.42 -12.7%

Home O1.5 66.3% 67.6% 1.48 -1.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 42.6% 2.35 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–2 4.3%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ABB2.5

Universitario de Vinto1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ABB · PPG 1.62

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ABB (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -5.1%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -13.1%

Universitario de Vinto (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

ABB face Universitario de Vinto in Bolivia - Primera División on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ABB a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Universitario de Vinto 24%, so ABB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for ABB and 1.1 for Universitario de Vinto (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ABB are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.38 for Universitario de Vinto. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +16.4%.

ABB vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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