Today / Bolivia - Primera División / Guabirá vs Real Potosí

Guabirá vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Guabirá

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Potosí

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.2%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.5%1-113.1%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.6%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 57.1% 1.75 -23.0%

Draw 27.3% 28.6% 3.50 -2.7%

Away win 28.7% 25.6% 3.90 +7.2%

Over 2.5 47.4% 65.4% 1.53 -27.5%

Over 3.5 26.2% 44.4% 2.25 -24.6%

BTTS 50.4% 65.4% 1.53 -22.9%

Home O1.5 38.4% 61.7% 1.62 -37.8%

Away O1.5 27.2% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.4%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guabirá1.3

Real Potosí1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GUABIRÁ · PPG 2.12

REAL POTOSÍ · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guabirá (H) 44.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -23.0%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.7%

Real Potosí (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guabirá face Real Potosí in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guabirá a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Real Potosí 29%, so Guabirá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guabirá and 1.0 for Real Potosí (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guabirá are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.25 for Real Potosí.

Guabirá vs Real Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions