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Bolívar vs ABB Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 00:30

Bolívar

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

ABB

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.6%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.8%1-12.6%1-21.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.6%2-15.2%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-17.0%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-023.0%4+-121.2%4+-29.8%4+-33.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 83.3% 1.20 -8.6%

Draw 15.6% 16.7% 6.00 -3.8%

Away win 8.2% 9.8% 10.25 -9.6%

Over 2.5 76.6% 76.9% 1.30 -0.4%

Over 3.5 56.2% 55.6% 1.80 +1.2%

BTTS 60.0% 58.8% 1.70 +2.0%

Home O1.5 78.3% 84.7% 1.18 -7.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 25.0% 4.00 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob60.0%

H 76% / xG 4.1-0.9 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.8%

#2 3–0 7.6%

#3 4–1✓ 7.2%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–1 2.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolívar4.1

ABB0.9

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLÍVAR · PPG 2.38

ABB · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.14 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bolívar (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -8.6%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -3.8%

ABB (A) 8.2%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolívar face ABB in Bolivia - Primera División on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolívar a 76% chance, the draw 16% and ABB 8%, so Bolívar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Bolívar and 0.9 for ABB (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolívar are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.50 for ABB. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Bolívar vs ABB Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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