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New York RB II vs Crown Legacy Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 23:00

New York RB II

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Crown Legacy

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.8%0-21.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.7%1-15.0%1-24.6%1-32.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.8%2-17.0%2-26.4%2-34.0%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.5%3-16.5%3-26.0%3-33.7%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-18.9%4+-28.2%4+-35.0%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 50.0% 2.00 +8.0%

Draw 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

Away win 24.9% 36.4% 2.75 -18.9%

Over 2.5 75.4% 73.5% 1.36 +2.5%

Over 3.5 53.4% 54.1% 1.85 -1.2%

BTTS 69.5% 74.1% 1.35 -6.2%

Home O1.5 65.2% 65.4% 1.53 -0.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 52.4% 1.91 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 0%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.5%

H 54% / xG 2.8-1.8 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.0%

#2 3–1 6.5%

#3 2–2 6.4%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York RB II2.8

Crown Legacy1.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK RB II · PPG 2.11

CROWN LEGACY · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New York RB II (H) 54.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +8.0%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.9%

Crown Legacy (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York RB II face Crown Legacy in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB II a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Crown Legacy 25%, so New York RB II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for New York RB II and 1.8 for Crown Legacy (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB II are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.25 for Crown Legacy. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.9%.

New York RB II vs Crown Legacy Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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