Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / New York RB II vs Crown Legacy

New York RB II vs Crown Legacy Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 23:00

New York RB II

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Crown Legacy

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.0%0-21.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-03.0%1-15.4%1-24.8%1-32.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.0%2-17.3%2-26.6%2-33.9%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.6%3-16.5%3-25.9%3-33.6%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-18.5%4+-27.7%4+-34.6%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Draw 21.1% 25.6% 3.90 -10.6%

Away win 25.1% 34.5% 2.90 -16.3%

Over 2.5 72.8% 73.5% 1.36 -1.0%

Over 3.5 52.5% 55.6% 1.80 -5.5%

BTTS 69.5% 76.9% 1.30 -9.7%

Home O1.5 63.3% 68.5% 1.46 -7.6%

Away O1.5 49.0% 51.3% 1.95 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.5%

H 54% / xG 2.7-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.3%

#2 2–2 6.6%

#3 3–1 6.5%

#4 1–1 5.4%

#5 3–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York RB II2.7

Crown Legacy1.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.8% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK RB II · PPG 2.11

CROWN LEGACY · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New York RB II (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -0.5%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.6%

Crown Legacy (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York RB II face Crown Legacy in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB II a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Crown Legacy 25%, so New York RB II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for New York RB II and 1.8 for Crown Legacy (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB II are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.25 for Crown Legacy. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 0-3.

New York RB II vs Crown Legacy Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Next Pro Predictions