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Deportivo Santani vs Paraguari AC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 16 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:30

Deportivo Santani

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Paraguari AC

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-17.7%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-111.8%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.6%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 54.1% 1.85 +0.1%

Draw 24.9% 33.3% 3.00 -15.2%

Away win 21.0% 23.1% 4.33 -5.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.3% 48.8% 2.05 +7.2%

Home O1.5 46.3% 48.1% 2.08 -3.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 25.5% 3.92 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.7%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 2–0✓ 11.7%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Santani1.5

Paraguari AC0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO SANTANI · PPG 1.43

PARAGUARI AC · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Santani (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.2%

Paraguari AC (A) 21.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Santani face Paraguari AC in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Santani a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Paraguari AC 21%, so Deportivo Santani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Deportivo Santani and 0.8 for Paraguari AC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Santani are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.43 for Paraguari AC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Deportivo Santani vs Paraguari AC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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