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Corinthians W vs Cruzeiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Quarter-finals ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 20:00

Corinthians W

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cruzeiro W

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 65% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.7%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.4%1-18.5%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.5%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-17.3%4+-23.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 71.4% 1.40 -21.7%

Draw 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Away win 22.4% 16.7% 6.00 +20.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 36.4% 2.75 +3.1%

BTTS 55.2% 57.1% 1.75 -3.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 63.7% 1.57 +4.1%

Away O1.5 31.6% 23.1% 4.33 +36.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -42.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.2%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–2 4.3%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians W2.3

Cruzeiro W1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS W · PPG 2.44

CRUZEIRO W · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians W (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -21.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Cruzeiro W (A) 22.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians W face Cruzeiro W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians W a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Cruzeiro W 22%, so Corinthians W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Corinthians W and 1.0 for Cruzeiro W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians W are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.38 for Cruzeiro W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +36.8%.

Corinthians W vs Cruzeiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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