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O'Higgins vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:45

O'Higgins

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

UPCOMING

Union La Calera

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-17.7%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.0%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.9%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 57.1% 1.75 -12.2%

Draw 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -9.7%

Away win 24.4% 25.0% 4.00 -1.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 52.6% 1.90 -3.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 46.1% 54.6% 1.83 -15.6%

Away O1.5 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O'Higgins1.6

Union La Calera0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

O'HIGGINS · PPG 1.20

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 0.80

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

O'Higgins (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -12.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.7%

Union La Calera (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

O'Higgins face Union La Calera in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O'Higgins a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Union La Calera 24%, so O'Higgins are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for O'Higgins and 0.9 for Union La Calera (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O'Higgins are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.80 for Union La Calera. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.5%.

O'Higgins vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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