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Huachipato vs Colo Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

Huachipato

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

UPCOMING

Colo Colo

PPG 2.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5 63% chance

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+15.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-15.1%0-26.1%0-34.9%0-4+5.2%1 1-03.1%1-17.4%1-28.9%1-37.1%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.4%2-26.5%2-35.2%2-4+5.5%3 3-01.1%3-12.6%3-23.1%3-32.5%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 26.3% 3.80 -7.3%

Draw 18.9% 29.4% 3.40 -21.4%

Away win 58.0% 55.6% 1.80 +4.4%

Over 2.5 68.4% 62.5% 1.60 +9.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 40.0% 2.50 +23.5%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.2% 2.62 +4.5%

Away O1.5 69.2% 59.9% 1.67 +15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.5%

A 58% / xG 1.5-2.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 0–2 6.1%

#5 2–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huachipato1.5

Colo Colo2.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HUACHIPATO · PPG 1.60

COLO COLO · PPG 2.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

63%

DANGER

xG gap -0.94 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Huachipato (H) 23.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.3%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.4%

Colo Colo (A) 58.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huachipato face Colo Colo in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huachipato a 23% chance, the draw 19% and Colo Colo 58%, so Colo Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Huachipato and 2.4 for Colo Colo (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huachipato are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.70 for Colo Colo. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +29.3%.

Huachipato vs Colo Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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