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Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:00

Universidad de Chile

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

UPCOMING

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-17.7%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-111.8%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.0%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 54.1% 1.85 -3.4%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.1%

Away win 22.6% 27.8% 3.60 -11.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 52.6% 1.90 -4.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.4% 1.91 -23.8%

Away O1.5 20.5% 30.8% 3.25 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad de Chile1.5

Coquimbo Unido0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE · PPG 2.10

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.40

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universidad de Chile (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -3.4%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.1%

Coquimbo Unido (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad de Chile face Coquimbo Unido in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad de Chile a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Coquimbo Unido 23%, so Universidad de Chile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Universidad de Chile and 0.8 for Coquimbo Unido (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad de Chile are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.40 for Coquimbo Unido.

Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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