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Deportes Limache vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 22 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 23:00

Deportes Limache

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

UPCOMING

Cobresal

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 68% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+22.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.8%0-21.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.5%1-15.5%1-23.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.1%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-18.1%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-112.5%4+-27.6%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 59.9% 1.67 +6.7%

Draw 15.4% 26.3% 3.80 -24.9%

Away win 20.7% 25.0% 4.00 -10.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 65.4% 1.53 +4.7%

Over 3.5 49.4% 44.4% 2.25 +11.2%

BTTS 63.5% 63.7% 1.57 -0.3%

Home O1.5 77.9% 63.7% 1.57 +22.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 36.4% 2.75 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 64% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–2 3.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Limache3.0

Cobresal1.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES LIMACHE · PPG 1.80

COBRESAL · PPG 0.27

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

68%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.75 for Home, form 1.80 vs 0.27 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Limache (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +6.7%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -24.9%

Cobresal (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Limache face Cobresal in Chile - Primera División on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Limache a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Cobresal 21%, so Deportes Limache are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Deportes Limache and 1.2 for Cobresal (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Limache are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.27 for Cobresal. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +57.0%.

Deportes Limache vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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