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D. La Serena vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

D. La Serena

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

UPCOMING

Nublense

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.3%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.8%1-111.7%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.0%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 41.7% 2.40 +13.3%

Draw 24.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.2%

Away win 28.2% 38.2% 2.62 -15.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 29.4% 3.40 +7.8%

BTTS 55.8% 58.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Home O1.5 47.9% 42.0% 2.38 +14.0%

Away O1.5 34.8% 40.0% 2.50 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.8%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. La Serena1.6

Nublense1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LA SERENA · PPG 1.30

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

D. La Serena (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +13.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.2%

Nublense (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. La Serena face Nublense in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. La Serena a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Nublense 28%, so D. La Serena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for D. La Serena and 1.2 for Nublense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. La Serena are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.60 for Nublense. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +16.8%.

D. La Serena vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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