Today / Peru - Segunda División / Academia Cantolao vs Deportivo Llacuabamba

Academia Cantolao vs Deportivo Llacuabamba Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:45

Academia Cantolao

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Llacuabamba

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-115.3%0-29.2%0-33.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.9%1-113.1%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.7%2-15.6%2-23.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.3%3-11.6%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% 27.8% 3.60 -0.6%

Draw 27.8% 30.8% 3.25 -5.8%

Away win 44.7% 52.6% 1.90 -15.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 50.0% 2.00 -14.6%

Over 3.5 20.9% 30.5% 3.28 -18.9%

BTTS 48.0% 56.5% 1.77 -15.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.5%

Away O1.5 36.2% 48.3% 2.07 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.0%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Academia Cantolao0.9

Deportivo Llacuabamba1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ACADEMIA CANTOLAO · PPG 0.86

DEPORTIVO LLACUABAMBA · PPG 0.83

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.34, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Academia Cantolao (H) 27.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.6%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.8%

Deportivo Llacuabamba (A) 44.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Academia Cantolao face Deportivo Llacuabamba in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Academia Cantolao a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Llacuabamba 45%, so Deportivo Llacuabamba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Academia Cantolao and 1.2 for Deportivo Llacuabamba (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Academia Cantolao are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.83 for Deportivo Llacuabamba.

Academia Cantolao vs Deportivo Llacuabamba Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Segunda División Predictions