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Cesar Vallejo vs Deportiva Agropecuaria Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Cesar Vallejo

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportiva Agropecuaria

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.7%0-18.8%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.8%1-110.1%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.7%2-15.8%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.3%3-12.2%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Draw 30.5% 29.4% 3.40 +3.7%

Away win 16.4% 19.0% 5.25 -8.3%

Over 2.5 34.6% 45.5% 2.20 -23.9%

Over 3.5 17.3% 25.5% 3.92 -19.3%

BTTS 41.7% 49.8% 2.01 -16.2%

Home O1.5 31.2% 49.0% 2.04 -36.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 23.5% 4.25 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.7%

H 53% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 23.8%

#2 0–0 20.7%

#3 2–0 13.7%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cesar Vallejo1.2

Deportiva Agropecuaria0.4

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CESAR VALLEJO · PPG 1.83

DEPORTIVA AGROPECUARIA · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cesar Vallejo (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.7%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +3.7%

Deportiva Agropecuaria (A) 16.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cesar Vallejo face Deportiva Agropecuaria in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cesar Vallejo a 53% chance, the draw 31% and Deportiva Agropecuaria 16%, so Cesar Vallejo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cesar Vallejo and 0.4 for Deportiva Agropecuaria (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cesar Vallejo are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.67 for Deportiva Agropecuaria.

Cesar Vallejo vs Deportiva Agropecuaria Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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