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União São João U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 8 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:00

União São João U20

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

EC São Bernardo U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-110.1%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-112.1%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-17.2%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-12.9%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 33.3% 3.00 +48.5%

Draw 30.3% 29.4% 3.40 +3.0%

Away win 20.2% 48.8% 2.05 -35.1%

Over 2.5 39.3% 52.6% 1.90 -25.3%

Over 3.5 19.7% 34.2% 2.92 -25.5%

BTTS 46.5% 59.9% 1.67 -22.4%

Home O1.5 36.0% 32.9% 3.04 +9.4%

Away O1.5 19.1% 54.3% 1.84 -38.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.5%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.3%

#2 1–0 19.4%

#3 1–1✓ 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

União São João U201.2

EC São Bernardo U200.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIÃO SÃO JOÃO U20 · PPG 0.50

EC SÃO BERNARDO U20 · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

União São João U20 (H) 49.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +48.5%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +3.0%

EC São Bernardo U20 (A) 20.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -35.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

União São João U20 face EC São Bernardo U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives União São João U20 a 50% chance, the draw 30% and EC São Bernardo U20 20%, so União São João U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for União São João U20 and 0.6 for EC São Bernardo U20 (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, União São João U20 are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.00 for EC São Bernardo U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 1-1.

União São João U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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