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PPJ vs Union Plaani Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A · Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00

PPJ

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Union Plaani

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 81% chance

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-11.6%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.8%1-15.0%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.0%2-17.8%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-015.9%4+-113.9%4+-26.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 76.9% 1.30 -11.9%

Draw 17.3% 20.0% 5.00 -8.1%

Away win 14.8% 14.3% 7.00 +2.2%

Over 2.5 67.0% 80.0% 1.25 -16.3%

Over 3.5 47.9% 61.7% 1.62 -22.4%

BTTS 55.4% 71.4% 1.40 -22.4%

Home O1.5 77.3% 82.0% 1.22 -5.7%

Away O1.5 23.1% 38.2% 2.62 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 31.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 68% / xG 3.1-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.4%

#2 2–0 9.0%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 4–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PPJ3.1

Union Plaani0.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PPJ · PPG 1.17

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

81%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.25 for Home, form 1.17 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

PPJ (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -11.9%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -8.1%

Union Plaani (A) 14.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

PPJ face Union Plaani in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PPJ a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Union Plaani 15%, so PPJ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for PPJ and 0.9 for Union Plaani (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PPJ are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.17 for Union Plaani. This match finished 0-1.

PPJ vs Union Plaani Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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