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Union Plaani vs PuiU Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Union Plaani

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

PuiU Helsinki

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.9%0-24.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.2%1-19.0%1-27.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.0%3-15.1%3-24.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 45.5% 2.20 -3.6%

Draw 22.5% 25.6% 3.90 -7.3%

Away win 33.7% 40.8% 2.45 -17.4%

Over 2.5 65.0% 71.4% 1.40 -9.0%

Over 3.5 44.8% 52.4% 1.91 -14.4%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 61.0% 1.64 -8.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.8% 1.76 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 31.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Plaani1.8

PuiU Helsinki1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.78

PUIU HELSINKI · PPG 0.56

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union Plaani (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -3.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.3%

PuiU Helsinki (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Plaani face PuiU Helsinki in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Plaani a 44% chance, the draw 23% and PuiU Helsinki 34%, so Union Plaani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Union Plaani and 1.7 for PuiU Helsinki (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Plaani are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.56 for PuiU Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Union Plaani vs PuiU Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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