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Kiffen vs HPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Kiffen

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HPS

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.4%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.6%1-17.8%1-25.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.0%3-17.1%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-17.1%4+-25.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 71.4% 1.40 -25.0%

Draw 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -4.1%

Away win 24.2% 20.0% 5.00 +12.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 75.2% 1.33 -10.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 55.6% 1.80 -21.7%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 75.2% 1.33 -13.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 38.2% 2.62 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 31.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kiffen2.3

HPS1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KIFFEN · PPG 2.38

HPS · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kiffen (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -25.0%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.1%

HPS (A) 24.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kiffen face HPS in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kiffen a 54% chance, the draw 22% and HPS 24%, so Kiffen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Kiffen and 1.4 for HPS (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kiffen are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.75 for HPS. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 5-1.

Kiffen vs HPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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