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Reipas vs PEPO Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:00

Reipas

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

PEPO

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.3%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.5%1-110.0%1-26.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.4%3-15.9%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.3%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 46.3% 2.16 +11.0%

Draw 22.4% 26.7% 3.75 -9.6%

Away win 26.2% 39.2% 2.55 -19.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 80.0% 1.25 -21.1%

Over 3.5 39.2% 59.5% 1.68 -34.1%

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.6%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reipas1.9

PEPO1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

REIPAS · PPG 2.50

PEPO · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Reipas (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +11.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.6%

PEPO (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reipas face PEPO in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reipas a 51% chance, the draw 22% and PEPO 26%, so Reipas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Reipas and 1.3 for PEPO (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reipas are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.38 for PEPO.

Reipas vs PEPO Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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