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Union Plaani vs Reipas Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Union Plaani

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Reipas

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.4%0-25.9%0-34.3%0-4+3.9%1 1-03.7%1-18.2%1-28.9%1-36.5%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.8%2-16.2%2-26.8%2-34.9%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.4%3-13.2%3-23.4%3-32.5%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 31.3% 3.20 +3.4%

Draw 22.7% 25.0% 4.00 -5.5%

Away win 45.1% 57.1% 1.75 -21.1%

Over 2.5 66.1% 80.0% 1.25 -17.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 61.7% 1.62 -29.5%

BTTS 63.2% 80.0% 1.25 -21.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 54.9% 1.82 -27.2%

Away O1.5 58.6% 74.6% 1.34 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 31.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.2%

A 45% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 6.2%

#3 1–2 8.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Plaani1.5

Reipas2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.50

REIPAS · PPG 0.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.66 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Plaani (H) 32.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +3.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.5%

Reipas (A) 45.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Plaani face Reipas in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Plaani a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Reipas 45%, so Reipas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Union Plaani and 2.2 for Reipas (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Plaani are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.38 for Reipas. This match finished 1-0.

Union Plaani vs Reipas Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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