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Atlantis vs PPJ Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Atlantis

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

6 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

PPJ

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.3% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.2%0-21.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-01.9%1-13.8%1-23.8%1-32.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.0%2-15.9%2-25.9%2-33.8%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.1%3-16.1%3-26.1%3-34.0%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-110.3%4+-210.2%4+-36.7%4+-4+5.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 66.7% 1.50 -13.9%

Draw 16.6% 22.7% 4.40 -16.2%

Away win 25.9% 22.7% 4.40 +8.4%

Over 2.5 79.3% 90.9% 1.10 -12.8%

Over 3.5 56.7% 80.0% 1.25 -29.1%

BTTS 69.1% 84.7% 1.18 -18.5%

Home O1.5 78.4% 85.5% 1.17 -8.3%

Away O1.5 55.2% 61.7% 1.62 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 31.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-3

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.1%

H 57% / xG 3.1-2.0 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.1%

#2 3–2 6.1%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 4–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlantis3.1

PPJ2.0

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.3% · O3.5 PROB 56.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTIS · PPG 2.25

PPJ · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlantis (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.9%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -16.2%

PPJ (A) 25.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlantis face PPJ in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlantis a 57% chance, the draw 17% and PPJ 26%, so Atlantis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Atlantis and 2.0 for PPJ (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlantis are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.50 for PPJ. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 6-3.

Atlantis vs PPJ Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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