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PEPO vs HIFK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

PEPO

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HIFK Helsinki

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.2%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.3%1-19.9%1-26.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.4%3-16.0%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Draw 21.9% 28.6% 3.50 -14.0%

Away win 26.6% 34.5% 2.90 -13.7%

Over 2.5 64.8% 75.2% 1.33 -13.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% 55.6% 1.80 -21.7%

BTTS 63.2% 76.9% 1.30 -17.8%

Home O1.5 54.9% 66.7% 1.50 -17.6%

Away O1.5 41.2% 52.4% 1.91 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 31.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEPO1.9

HIFK Helsinki1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PEPO · PPG 2.50

HIFK HELSINKI · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

PEPO (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.0%

HIFK Helsinki (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEPO face HIFK Helsinki in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEPO a 52% chance, the draw 22% and HIFK Helsinki 27%, so PEPO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for PEPO and 1.4 for HIFK Helsinki (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEPO are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.62 for HIFK Helsinki. This match finished 5-1.

PEPO vs HIFK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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