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PPJ vs Kiffen Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

PPJ

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kiffen

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.2%0-25.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.8%1-110.8%1-28.6%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.1%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 37.0% 2.70 -6.9%

Draw 22.9% 25.0% 4.00 -5.0%

Away win 42.6% 48.8% 2.05 -12.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 73.5% 1.36 -13.4%

Over 3.5 40.4% 54.6% 1.83 -26.1%

BTTS 61.9% 73.5% 1.36 -15.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.6% 1.83 -27.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 61.7% 1.62 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 31.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.9%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–2 5.7%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PPJ1.5

Kiffen1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PPJ · PPG 1.22

KIFFEN · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

PPJ (H) 34.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -6.9%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.0%

Kiffen (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

PPJ face Kiffen in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PPJ a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Kiffen 43%, so Kiffen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for PPJ and 1.6 for Kiffen (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PPJ are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.89 for Kiffen.

PPJ vs Kiffen Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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