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PEPO vs PuiU Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A · Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00

PEPO

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

PuiU Helsinki

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.9%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.8%1-23.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-17.3%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-16.8%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 65.4% 1.53 -4.2%

Draw 19.8% 26.7% 3.75 -15.4%

Away win 17.6% 20.8% 4.80 -9.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 40.0% 50.0% 2.00 -20.0%

BTTS 55.1% 69.4% 1.44 -20.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Away O1.5 24.7% 38.2% 2.62 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 31.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.1%

H 63% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEPO2.2

PuiU Helsinki0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PEPO · PPG 2.33

PUIU HELSINKI · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

PEPO (H) 62.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -4.2%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -15.4%

PuiU Helsinki (A) 17.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEPO face PuiU Helsinki in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEPO a 63% chance, the draw 20% and PuiU Helsinki 18%, so PEPO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for PEPO and 0.9 for PuiU Helsinki (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEPO are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.67 for PuiU Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 3-2.

PEPO vs PuiU Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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