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PEPO vs PuiU Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 16:00

PEPO

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

PuiU Helsinki

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.7%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.4%1-18.5%1-23.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.4%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-17.2%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 67.6% 1.48 -7.3%

Draw 19.8% 23.3% 4.30 -8.9%

Away win 17.6% 21.3% 4.70 -10.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 79.4% 1.26 -19.7%

Over 3.5 40.0% 58.8% 1.70 -32.0%

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% 43.9% 2.28 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 24.0%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 63% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEPO2.3

PuiU Helsinki0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PEPO · PPG 2.33

PUIU HELSINKI · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.37 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

PEPO (H) 62.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -7.3%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -8.9%

PuiU Helsinki (A) 17.6%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEPO face PuiU Helsinki in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEPO a 63% chance, the draw 20% and PuiU Helsinki 18%, so PEPO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for PEPO and 0.9 for PuiU Helsinki (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEPO are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.67 for PuiU Helsinki.

PEPO vs PuiU Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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