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Eltham Redbacks FC vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:30

Eltham Redbacks FC

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Melbourne Srbija

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.9%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-110.8%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.1%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 54.6% 1.83 -2.3%

Draw 23.1% 25.0% 4.00 -4.6%

Away win 23.5% 32.3% 3.10 -16.3%

Over 2.5 60.7% 69.4% 1.44 -12.6%

Over 3.5 37.5% 50.5% 1.98 -25.8%

BTTS 55.4% 73.5% 1.36 -24.7%

Home O1.5 55.2% 65.4% 1.53 -15.5%

Away O1.5 29.4% 47.4% 2.11 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eltham Redbacks FC1.8

Melbourne Srbija1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ELTHAM REDBACKS FC · PPG 1.90

MELBOURNE SRBIJA · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Eltham Redbacks FC (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -2.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.6%

Melbourne Srbija (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eltham Redbacks FC face Melbourne Srbija in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eltham Redbacks FC a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Melbourne Srbija 24%, so Eltham Redbacks FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Eltham Redbacks FC and 1.0 for Melbourne Srbija (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eltham Redbacks FC are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.11 for Melbourne Srbija.

Eltham Redbacks FC vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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