Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Eltham Redbacks FC vs Melbourne Srbija

Eltham Redbacks FC vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:30

Eltham Redbacks FC

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Melbourne Srbija

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.8%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.0%1-19.7%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-16.7%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.5%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 54.1% 1.85 +0.3%

Draw 22.2% 28.6% 3.50 -13.4%

Away win 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 40.0% 50.5% 1.98 -20.8%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 58.3% 65.4% 1.53 -10.8%

Away O1.5 36.4% 47.4% 2.11 -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.5%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eltham Redbacks FC2.0

Melbourne Srbija1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ELTHAM REDBACKS FC · PPG 1.90

MELBOURNE SRBIJA · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Eltham Redbacks FC (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.3%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.4%

Melbourne Srbija (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eltham Redbacks FC face Melbourne Srbija in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eltham Redbacks FC a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Melbourne Srbija 24%, so Eltham Redbacks FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Eltham Redbacks FC and 1.1 for Melbourne Srbija (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eltham Redbacks FC are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.11 for Melbourne Srbija. This match finished 0-2.

Eltham Redbacks FC vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions