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Brunswick City vs Western United II Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:30

Brunswick City

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

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5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western United II

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Over 2.5 81% chance

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.3%0-21.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-01.9%1-13.9%1-24.0%1-32.8%1-4+2.3%2 2-02.8%2-15.9%2-26.0%2-34.1%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.9%3-15.9%3-26.1%3-34.2%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-19.3%4+-29.6%4+-36.6%4+-4+5.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Draw 17.8% 26.3% 3.80 -19.4%

Away win 27.6% 35.7% 2.80 -13.6%

Over 2.5 79.6% 82.0% 1.22 -2.9%

Over 3.5 56.5% 59.5% 1.68 -5.1%

BTTS 69.5% 82.0% 1.22 -15.2%

Home O1.5 77.3% 68.5% 1.46 +12.9%

Away O1.5 50.0% 57.5% 1.74 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.5%

H 55% / xG 3.0-2.1 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 6.1%

#2 2–2 6.0%

#3 3–1 5.9%

#4 2–1 5.9%

#5 4–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brunswick City3.0

Western United II2.1

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 1.60

WESTERN UNITED II · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

81%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brunswick City (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +6.5%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.4%

Western United II (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brunswick City face Western United II in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brunswick City a 55% chance, the draw 18% and Western United II 28%, so Brunswick City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Brunswick City and 2.1 for Western United II (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brunswick City are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.90 for Western United II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 5-0.

Brunswick City vs Western United II Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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