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Brunswick City vs Western United II Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:30

Brunswick City

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Western United II

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.4%0-21.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-02.0%1-14.0%1-24.1%1-32.8%1-4+2.3%2 2-02.9%2-16.0%2-26.1%2-34.2%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.9%3-15.9%3-26.1%3-34.1%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-19.2%4+-29.4%4+-36.4%4+-4+5.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 52.4% 1.91 +3.9%

Draw 18.2% 23.8% 4.20 -14.1%

Away win 27.4% 36.4% 2.75 -14.8%

Over 2.5 79.6% 78.1% 1.28 +1.9%

Over 3.5 55.0% 59.5% 1.68 -7.6%

BTTS 69.5% 80.0% 1.25 -13.1%

Home O1.5 77.3% 68.5% 1.46 +12.9%

Away O1.5 49.4% 57.5% 1.74 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.5%

H 54% / xG 3.0-2.0 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.1%

#2 3–2 6.1%

#3 2–1 6.0%

#4 3–1 5.9%

#5 1–1 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brunswick City3.0

Western United II2.0

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 55.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 1.60

WESTERN UNITED II · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brunswick City (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +3.9%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.1%

Western United II (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brunswick City face Western United II in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brunswick City a 54% chance, the draw 18% and Western United II 27%, so Brunswick City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Brunswick City and 2.0 for Western United II (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brunswick City are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.90 for Western United II. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.9%.

Brunswick City vs Western United II Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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