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Deportivo Cali W vs América de Cali W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 00:00

Deportivo Cali W

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

América de Cali W

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-19.7%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-112.0%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-17.4%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.1%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 46.5% 2.15 +9.7%

Draw 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

Away win 20.1% 30.3% 3.30 -20.2%

Over 2.5 39.3% 38.5% 2.60 +2.2%

Over 3.5 19.7% 23.1% 4.33 -8.8%

BTTS 46.7% 47.6% 2.10 -1.9%

Home O1.5 37.0% 38.5% 2.60 -3.8%

Away O1.5 19.1% 27.4% 3.65 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -18.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.7%

H 51% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.3%

#2 0–0 15.6%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Cali W1.2

América de Cali W0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CALI W · PPG 2.50

AMÉRICA DE CALI W · PPG 2.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Cali W (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +9.7%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.0%

América de Cali W (A) 20.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Cali W face América de Cali W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Cali W a 51% chance, the draw 29% and América de Cali W 20%, so Deportivo Cali W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Deportivo Cali W and 0.6 for América de Cali W (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Cali W are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.33 for América de Cali W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Deportivo Cali W vs América de Cali W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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