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Vélez Sársfield Res. vs Talleres Córdoba Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura - 2 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 18:00

Vélez Sársfield Res.

PPG 2.45 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Talleres Córdoba Res.

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+13.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-14.4%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.4%1-19.2%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.9%3-16.6%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-15.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 58.8% 1.70 -3.1%

Draw 22.5% 30.8% 3.25 -16.1%

Away win 20.4% 23.1% 4.33 -7.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.3% 1.95 +5.1%

Over 3.5 32.8% 31.8% 3.14 +3.0%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 61.8% 54.6% 1.83 +13.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 27.9% 3.58 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vélez Sársfield Res.2.1

Talleres Córdoba Res.0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VÉLEZ SÁRSFIELD RES. · PPG 2.45

TALLERES CÓRDOBA RES. · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vélez Sársfield Res. (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -3.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.1%

Talleres Córdoba Res. (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vélez Sársfield Res. face Talleres Córdoba Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vélez Sársfield Res. a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Talleres Córdoba Res. 20%, so Vélez Sársfield Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Vélez Sársfield Res. and 0.7 for Talleres Córdoba Res. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vélez Sársfield Res. are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 1.78 for Talleres Córdoba Res.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Vélez Sársfield Res. vs Talleres Córdoba Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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