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Tigre Res. vs Rosario Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura - 2 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 18:00

Tigre Res.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Rosario Central Res.

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-113.0%0-27.2%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.2%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.3%2-17.0%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.2%3-12.4%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 28.6% 3.50 +28.8%

Draw 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Away win 34.3% 51.3% 1.95 -33.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 3.5 26.4% 29.2% 3.42 -5.8%

BTTS 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Home O1.5 35.0% 31.1% 3.22 +12.7%

Away O1.5 36.4% 48.3% 2.07 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigre Res.1.0

Rosario Central Res.1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRE RES. · PPG 1.50

ROSARIO CENTRAL RES. · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.07, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tigre Res. (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +28.8%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.2%

Rosario Central Res. (A) 34.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigre Res. face Rosario Central Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigre Res. a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Rosario Central Res. 34%, so Tigre Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tigre Res. and 1.1 for Rosario Central Res. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigre Res. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Rosario Central Res.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Tigre Res. vs Rosario Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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