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New England II vs New York City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 15:00

New England II logo
New England II
PPG 1.64 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
New York City II logo
New York City II
PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.62)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.5%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.4%1-112.3%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.9%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.6%3-14.3%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 40.4%
Draw 24.9%
Away win 34.6%
Over 2.5 53.8%
Over 3.5 32.8%
BTTS 55.4%
Home O1.5 45.8%
Away O1.5 36.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%
#2 0–0 7.2%
#3 2–1 8.9%
#4 1–0 10.4%
#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England II1.4
New York City II1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND II · PPG 1.64

NEW YORK CITY II · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

New England II (H) 40.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 24.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
New York City II (A) 34.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

New England II face New York City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England II a 40% chance, the draw 25% and New York City II 35%, so New England II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for New England II and 1.2 for New York City II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England II are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.62 for New York City II.

PredictVantage

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