Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / New England II vs New York City II
New England II vs New York City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro
Group Stage ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 15:00
// Model verdict
BTTS 61% chance
Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 85 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 40% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%
Form & verdict
NEW ENGLAND II · PPG 1.64
NEW YORK CITY II · PPG 1.62
xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New England II face New York City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England II a 40% chance, the draw 25% and New York City II 35%, so New England II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for New England II and 1.1 for New York City II (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England II are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.62 for New York City II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 3-0.