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New England II vs New York City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 15:00

New England II logo
New England II
PPG 1.64 · HOME
LAST 5
LLLLD
3 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS
New York City II logo
New York City II
PPG 1.62 · AWAY
LAST 5
LWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.3%0-25.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.5%1-112.7%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.7%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 40.4% 65.4% 1.53 -38.2%
Draw 25.0% 25.6% 3.90 -1.5%
Away win 34.6% 21.7% 4.60 +59.2%
Over 2.5 52.7% 66.7% 1.50 -20.9%
Over 3.5 31.9% 46.1% 2.17 -30.8%
BTTS 52.3% 64.5% 1.55 -18.9%
Home O1.5 38.5% 68.0% 1.47 -43.4%
Away O1.5 36.4% 35.2% 2.84 +3.4%

League track record

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%
O2.5 77%
BTTS 56%
Score Hit 25%
ROI 15.2%
Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 3-0
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%
#2 0–0 8.4%
#3 1–0 11.5%
#4 2–1 8.7%
#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England II1.4
New York City II1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND II · PPG 1.64

NEW YORK CITY II · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected
Chance this pick lands
61%
HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

New England II (H) 40.4%
ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -38.2%
Draw 25.0%
ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.5%
New York City II (A) 34.6%
ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +59.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

New England II face New York City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England II a 40% chance, the draw 25% and New York City II 35%, so New England II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for New England II and 1.1 for New York City II (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England II are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.62 for New York City II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 3-0.

PredictVantage

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18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org