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Philadelphia Union II vs Columbus Crew II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 23:00

Philadelphia Union II

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

UPCOMING

Columbus Crew II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.3%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.1%1-111.6%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.2%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.8%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 43.5% 2.30 -1.8%

Draw 23.0% 30.8% 3.25 -15.2%

Away win 34.2% 40.0% 2.50 -14.5%

Over 2.5 59.9% 69.4% 1.44 -13.7%

Over 3.5 37.8% 50.0% 2.00 -24.4%

BTTS 61.5% 73.5% 1.36 -16.4%

Home O1.5 47.3% 59.2% 1.69 -20.1%

Away O1.5 37.8% 54.9% 1.82 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia Union II1.6

Columbus Crew II1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA UNION II · PPG 1.42

COLUMBUS CREW II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia Union II (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -1.8%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.2%

Columbus Crew II (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia Union II face Columbus Crew II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia Union II a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Columbus Crew II 34%, so Philadelphia Union II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Philadelphia Union II and 1.3 for Columbus Crew II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia Union II are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.00 for Columbus Crew II.

Philadelphia Union II vs Columbus Crew II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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