Today / England - League One / Peterborough vs Burton Albion

Peterborough vs Burton Albion Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 44 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Peterborough

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Burton Albion

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDD

// Model verdict

Home 44% chance

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 36.8% — a clear edge.

+61.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.1%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.8%1-110.1%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.5%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 36.8% 2.72 +61.0%

Draw 21.5% 29.4% 3.40 -26.9%

Away win 19.3% 41.0% 2.44 -52.9%

Over 2.5 57.6% 59.9% 1.67 -3.8%

Over 3.5 35.2% 38.5% 2.60 -8.5%

BTTS 55.3% 66.7% 1.50 -17.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.3%

H 59% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterborough2.0

Burton Albion1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERBOROUGH · PPG 1.40

BURTON ALBION · PPG 0.95

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

44%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Peterborough (H) 59.2%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +61.0%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -26.9%

Burton Albion (A) 19.3%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -52.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterborough face Burton Albion in England - League One on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterborough a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Burton Albion 19%, so Peterborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Peterborough and 1.0 for Burton Albion (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterborough are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.95 for Burton Albion. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +61.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Peterborough vs Burton Albion Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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