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Peterborough vs Burton Albion Prediction— England - League One

England - League One logo England flag England - League One Regular Season - 44 Weston Homes Stadium· Peterborough Sunday, April 19, 2026 12:00
Peterborough logo Peterborough PPG 1.40
1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Burton Albion logo Burton Albion PPG 0.95
Home· +61.0% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterborough face Burton Albion in England - League One on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterborough a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Burton Albion 19%, so Peterborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Peterborough and 1.0 for Burton Albion (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterborough are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.95 for Burton Albion. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +61.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.2%
Odds: 2.72 EV: +61.0%
Draw 21.5%
Odds: 3.40 EV: -26.9%
Away 19.3%
Odds: 2.44 EV: -52.9%
Model lean: Home
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.6% Odds: 1.67 -3.8%
Over 3.5 35.2% Odds: 2.60 -8.5%
BTTS 55.3% Odds: 1.50 -17.1%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 1-0
4th 2-0
5th 3-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Peterborough
1.97
Burton Albion
1.03

Model Suggestion

Home +61.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.95)

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