Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Austin II

Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Austin II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 01:00

Vancouver Whitecaps II

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Austin II

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-110.8%0-210.6%0-36.9%0-4+5.3%1 1-05.1%1-110.1%1-29.9%1-36.5%1-4+5.0%2 2-02.4%2-14.8%2-24.7%2-33.1%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.5% 25.3% 3.95 -9.0%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.5%

Away win 56.5% 59.9% 1.67 -5.7%

Over 2.5 60.7% 65.4% 1.53 -7.1%

Over 3.5 37.5% 47.6% 2.10 -21.3%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 33.7% 37.3% 2.68 -9.7%

Away O1.5 49.0% 66.2% 1.51 -26.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob55.4%

A 56% / xG 0.9-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 0–2 10.6%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vancouver Whitecaps II0.9

Austin II2.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS II · PPG 1.40

AUSTIN II · PPG 2.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

DANGER

xG gap -1.03 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Vancouver Whitecaps II (H) 21.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.5%

Austin II (A) 56.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vancouver Whitecaps II face Austin II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps II a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Austin II 56%, so Austin II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Vancouver Whitecaps II and 2.0 for Austin II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vancouver Whitecaps II are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.71 for Austin II. This match finished 0-4.

Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Austin II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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