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Energie Cottbus vs RW Essen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:30

Energie Cottbus

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RW Essen

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+22.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.8%0-22.8%0-31.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-03.1%1-16.3%1-26.3%1-34.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.5%2-17.1%2-27.2%2-34.8%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.7%3-15.4%3-25.5%3-33.7%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-15.2%4+-25.3%4+-33.5%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 42.0% 2.38 +6.6%

Draw 19.8% 27.8% 3.60 -28.7%

Away win 35.4% 37.0% 2.70 -4.4%

Over 2.5 80.1% 65.4% 1.53 +22.6%

Over 3.5 62.1% 44.4% 2.25 +39.7%

BTTS 77.8% 70.4% 1.42 +10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob77.8%

H 45% / xG 2.3-2.0 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 1–1 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Energie Cottbus2.3

RW Essen2.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.1% · O3.5 PROB 62.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ENERGIE COTTBUS · PPG 2.00

RW ESSEN · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Energie Cottbus (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +6.6%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -28.7%

RW Essen (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Energie Cottbus face RW Essen in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Energie Cottbus a 45% chance, the draw 20% and RW Essen 35%, so Energie Cottbus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Energie Cottbus and 2.0 for RW Essen (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Energie Cottbus are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.69 for RW Essen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.7%. This match finished 5-3.

Energie Cottbus vs RW Essen Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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