Today / Germany - 3. Liga / SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Hoffenheim II

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Hoffenheim II Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:30

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

UPCOMING

Hoffenheim II

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.7%0-25.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.3%1-110.4%1-28.6%1-34.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.1%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.5%3-14.2%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% 46.5% 2.15 -26.0%

Draw 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -15.5%

Away win 42.8% 34.5% 2.90 +24.1%

Over 2.5 61.6% 62.5% 1.60 -1.4%

Over 3.5 40.2% 40.0% 2.50 +0.5%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 45.8% 54.6% 1.83 -16.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 44.4% 2.25 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 43% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–2 5.5%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1.6

Hoffenheim II1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SG SONNENHOF GROSSASPACH · PPG 1.50

HOFFENHEIM II · PPG 1.51

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (H) 34.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -26.0%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.5%

Hoffenheim II (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach face Hoffenheim II in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Hoffenheim II 43%, so Hoffenheim II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.6 for Hoffenheim II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.51 for Hoffenheim II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.0%.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Hoffenheim II Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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