Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Schalke 04 vs Preuss. Munster

Schalke 04 vs Preuss. Munster Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:30

Schalke 04

PPG 2.36 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Preuss. Munster

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-14.7%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.6%1-19.2%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-16.0%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-14.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% 65.4% 1.53 +5.7%

Draw 20.0% 25.3% 3.95 -21.0%

Away win 10.9% 16.0% 6.25 -31.9%

Over 2.5 48.1% 52.6% 1.90 -8.6%

Over 3.5 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

BTTS 40.2% 52.4% 1.91 -23.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.2%

H 69% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 2–0 14.4%

#3 3–0 9.5%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schalke 042.0

Preuss. Munster0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHALKE 04 · PPG 2.36

PREUSS. MUNSTER · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.36), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Schalke 04 (H) 69.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +5.7%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -21.0%

Preuss. Munster (A) 10.9%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schalke 04 face Preuss. Munster in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schalke 04 a 69% chance, the draw 20% and Preuss. Munster 11%, so Schalke 04 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Schalke 04 and 0.6 for Preuss. Munster (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schalke 04 are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.86 for Preuss. Munster. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Schalke 04 vs Preuss. Munster Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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