Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:30

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DLW ··

UPCOMING

1. FC Heidenheim

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.0%0-22.7%0-31.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.7%1-16.8%1-26.2%1-33.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.3%2-17.8%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.3%3-16.0%3-25.4%3-33.3%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.8%4+-25.3%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 34.7% 2.88 +31.0%

Draw 20.1% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

Away win 34.4% 45.5% 2.20 -24.3%

Over 2.5 72.6% 66.7% 1.50 +8.9%

Over 3.5 52.1% 45.5% 2.20 +14.6%

BTTS 69.7% 69.4% 1.44 +0.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 47.6% 2.10 +39.2%

Away O1.5 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.7%

H 46% / xG 2.3-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 1–2 6.2%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SpVgg Greuther Fürth2.3

1. FC Heidenheim1.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SPVGG GREUTHER FÜRTH · PPG 1.22

1. FC HEIDENHEIM · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +31.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.8%

1. FC Heidenheim (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

SpVgg Greuther Fürth face 1. FC Heidenheim in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 46% chance, the draw 20% and 1. FC Heidenheim 34%, so SpVgg Greuther Fürth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.8 for 1. FC Heidenheim (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.25 for 1. FC Heidenheim. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +80.5%.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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