Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg

Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:30

Hertha BSC

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

UPCOMING

1. FC Magdeburg

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.4%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.1%1-19.1%1-25.9%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.2%3-16.7%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.7%4+-23.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 52.4% 1.91 +2.6%

Draw 21.8% 27.8% 3.60 -12.9%

Away win 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Over 2.5 66.7% 67.6% 1.48 -1.3%

Over 3.5 44.9% 47.6% 2.10 -5.7%

BTTS 63.3% 69.4% 1.44 -8.8%

Home O1.5 60.2% 61.7% 1.62 -2.5%

Away O1.5 38.3% 44.4% 2.25 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.3%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 5.9%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hertha BSC2.1

1. FC Magdeburg1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HERTHA BSC · PPG 1.67

1. FC MAGDEBURG · PPG 1.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hertha BSC (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +2.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.9%

1. FC Magdeburg (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hertha BSC face 1. FC Magdeburg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hertha BSC a 54% chance, the draw 22% and 1. FC Magdeburg 25%, so Hertha BSC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Hertha BSC and 1.3 for 1. FC Magdeburg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hertha BSC are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.64 for 1. FC Magdeburg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.0%.

Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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