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Haka vs MP Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

Haka

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Home 75% chance

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.6%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.4%1-16.9%1-23.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-19.1%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-18.0%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-110.0%4+-24.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.9% 77.5% 1.29 -12.4%

Draw 16.3% 21.7% 4.60 -15.0%

Away win 15.8% 11.8% 8.50 +20.6%

Over 2.5 66.8% 69.4% 1.44 -3.8%

Over 3.5 44.9% 50.0% 2.00 -10.2%

BTTS 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Home O1.5 66.3% 76.9% 1.30 -13.8%

Away O1.5 26.1% 23.1% 4.33 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haka2.6

MP0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HAKA · PPG 2.09

MP · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

75%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.71 for Home, form 2.09 vs 0.64 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Haka (H) 67.9%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -12.4%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -15.0%

MP (A) 15.8%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haka face MP in Finland - Ykkosliga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haka a 68% chance, the draw 16% and MP 16%, so Haka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Haka and 0.9 for MP (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haka are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.64 for MP. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.4%.

Haka vs MP Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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