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Greuther Furth vs Darmstadt Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:30

Greuther Furth

PPG 1.14 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Darmstadt

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+17.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-15.2%0-26.5%0-35.5%0-4+6.3%1 1-02.8%1-17.1%1-28.9%1-37.5%1-4+8.6%2 2-01.9%2-14.8%2-26.1%2-35.1%2-4+5.9%3 3-00.9%3-12.2%3-22.8%3-32.3%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.4% 33.9% 2.95 -42.8%

Draw 18.1% 26.7% 3.75 -32.1%

Away win 62.5% 46.5% 2.15 +34.4%

Over 2.5 74.5% 63.7% 1.57 +17.0%

Over 3.5 54.4% 40.8% 2.45 +33.3%

BTTS 68.5% 67.6% 1.48 +1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob68.5%

A 62% / xG 1.4-2.5 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–3 7.5%

#3 1–1 7.1%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greuther Furth1.4

Darmstadt2.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GREUTHER FURTH · PPG 1.14

DARMSTADT · PPG 1.14

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Greuther Furth (H) 19.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -42.8%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -32.1%

Darmstadt (A) 62.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Greuther Furth face Darmstadt in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greuther Furth a 19% chance, the draw 18% and Darmstadt 63%, so Darmstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Greuther Furth and 2.5 for Darmstadt (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greuther Furth are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.14 for Darmstadt. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Greuther Furth vs Darmstadt Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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