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Suduva vs Dziugas Telsiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:15

Suduva

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.2%0-110.5%0-21.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-025.5%1-19.1%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.1%2-14.0%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.2%3-11.2%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 50.0% 2.00 -7.4%

Draw 39.1% 34.5% 2.90 +13.4%

Away win 14.6% 26.3% 3.80 -44.5%

Over 2.5 12.7% — — —

Over 3.5 3.7% — — —

BTTS 17.6% 51.3% 1.95 -65.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob17.6%

H 46% / xG 0.9-0.4 / U2.5 13% / NoBTTS 18%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.2%

#2 1–0 25.5%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 1–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suduva0.9

Dziugas Telsiai0.4

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 12.7% · O3.5 PROB 3.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SUDUVA · PPG 2.00

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Suduva (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -7.4%

Draw 39.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +13.4%

Dziugas Telsiai (A) 14.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -44.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suduva face Dziugas Telsiai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suduva a 46% chance, the draw 39% and Dziugas Telsiai 15%, so Suduva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Suduva and 0.4 for Dziugas Telsiai (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 13% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 18% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suduva are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Dziugas Telsiai. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Suduva vs Dziugas Telsiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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