Today / T. Wilhelmsburg vs Suderelbe

T. Wilhelmsburg vs Suderelbe Prediction

Sunday, April 19, 2026

T. Wilhelmsburg

PPG 0.83 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Suderelbe

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.5%0-21.5%0-32.8%0-4+20.8%1 1-00.1%1-10.7%1-22.0%1-33.8%1-4+28.2%2 2-00.1%2-10.5%2-21.4%2-32.6%2-4+19.2%3 3-00.0%3-10.2%3-20.6%3-31.2%3-4+8.7%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+4.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 2.8% — — —

Draw 4.2% — — —

Away win 93.0% — — —

Over 2.5 96.9% — — —

Over 3.5 91.5% — — —

BTTS 74.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)5.6 BTTS prob74.0%

A 93% / xG 1.4-5.6 / O2.5 97% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–5 5.9%

#2 1–4 5.3%

#3 0–5 4.4%

#4 2–5 4.0%

#5 0–4 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. Wilhelmsburg1.4

Suderelbe5.6

COMBINED 6.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 96.9% · O3.5 PROB 91.5%

Form & verdict PPG

T. WILHELMSBURG · PPG 0.83

SUDERELBE · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.83) vs Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

T. Wilhelmsburg (H) 2.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 4.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Suderelbe (A) 93.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

T. Wilhelmsburg face Suderelbe on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Wilhelmsburg a 3% chance, the draw 4% and Suderelbe 93%, so Suderelbe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for T. Wilhelmsburg and 5.6 for Suderelbe (6.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-5. There is a 97% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Wilhelmsburg are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.23 for Suderelbe. This match finished 0-0.

T. Wilhelmsburg vs Suderelbe Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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