Today / Kazakhstan / Kaisar K. vs Kaspiy Aktau

Kaisar K. vs Kaspiy Aktau Prediction— Kazakhstan

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 15:00

Kaisar K.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kaspiy Aktau

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-112.3%0-24.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.4%1-112.7%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.5%2-16.6%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.3%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 46.5% 2.15 -10.8%

Draw 31.1% 30.8% 3.25 +1.1%

Away win 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Over 2.5 39.6% 51.3% 1.95 -22.8%

Over 3.5 19.6% 29.0% 3.45 -19.4%

BTTS 46.6% 57.8% 1.73 -19.4%

Home O1.5 35.6% 46.5% 2.15 -23.5%

Away O1.5 21.6% 36.4% 2.75 -24.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.6%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.8%

#2 1–0 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaisar K.1.0

Kaspiy Aktau0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KAISAR K. · PPG 1.00

KASPIY AKTAU · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

Kaisar K. (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -10.8%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +1.1%

Kaspiy Aktau (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaisar K. face Kaspiy Aktau in Kazakhstan on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaisar K. a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Kaspiy Aktau 27%, so Kaisar K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kaisar K. and 0.7 for Kaspiy Aktau (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaisar K. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.70 for Kaspiy Aktau. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%.

Kaisar K. vs Kaspiy Aktau Prediction— Kazakhstan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kazakhstan Predictions