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Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Kairat Almaty

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Irtysh

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-12.4%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.3%1-16.1%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.5%2-17.7%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.0%3-16.5%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-015.0%4+-17.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.9% 76.3% 1.31 -3.2%

Draw 17.5% 22.5% 4.45 -13.3%

Away win 8.6% 12.2% 8.20 -17.7%

Over 2.5 60.3% 63.3% 1.58 -4.7%

Over 3.5 36.9% 42.9% 2.33 -14.0%

BTTS 47.6% 54.3% 1.84 -12.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 70.9% 1.41 -8.2%

Away O1.5 16.4% 21.5% 4.65 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.6%

H 74% / xG 2.5-0.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 1–1 6.1%

#5 4–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kairat Almaty2.5

Irtysh0.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KAIRAT ALMATY · PPG 2.40

IRTYSH · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.02 for Home, form 2.40 vs 0.73 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kairat Almaty (H) 73.9%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -3.2%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -13.3%

Irtysh (A) 8.6%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kairat Almaty face Irtysh in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kairat Almaty a 74% chance, the draw 18% and Irtysh 9%, so Kairat Almaty are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Kairat Almaty and 0.5 for Irtysh (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kairat Almaty are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.73 for Irtysh.

Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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