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Ordabasy vs Kyzyl-Zhar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Ordabasy

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kyzyl-Zhar

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-12.8%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.9%1-16.9%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.4%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-16.9%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.9%4+-17.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.7% 66.7% 1.50 +6.0%

Draw 16.2% 26.7% 3.75 -23.5%

Away win 13.1% 16.1% 6.20 -11.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 51.8% 1.93 +15.2%

Over 3.5 36.7% 29.9% 3.35 +22.9%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 59.9% 1.67 +9.9%

Away O1.5 16.0% 22.2% 4.50 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 71% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 3–0✓ 11.8%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ordabasy2.4

Kyzyl-Zhar0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORDABASY · PPG 2.67

KYZYL-ZHAR · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.86 for Home, form 2.67 vs 0.90 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ordabasy (H) 70.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +6.0%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -23.5%

Kyzyl-Zhar (A) 13.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ordabasy face Kyzyl-Zhar in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ordabasy a 71% chance, the draw 16% and Kyzyl-Zhar 13%, so Ordabasy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Ordabasy and 0.6 for Kyzyl-Zhar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ordabasy are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.90 for Kyzyl-Zhar. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Ordabasy vs Kyzyl-Zhar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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