Today / Kazakhstan - Premier League / Irtysh vs Aktobe

Irtysh vs Aktobe Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Irtysh

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aktobe

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-110.0%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.6%1-112.8%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.2%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 32.3% 3.10 +19.0%

Draw 26.6% 31.3% 3.20 -8.9%

Away win 34.9% 48.8% 2.05 -28.5%

Over 2.5 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Over 3.5 31.4% 31.3% 3.20 +0.5%

BTTS 54.3% 57.1% 1.75 -5.0%

Home O1.5 37.2% 35.2% 2.84 +5.7%

Away O1.5 36.6% 47.8% 2.09 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 2–1✓ 8.2%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Irtysh1.3

Aktobe1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IRTYSH · PPG 0.90

AKTOBE · PPG 0.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Irtysh (H) 38.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +19.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.9%

Aktobe (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Irtysh face Aktobe in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Irtysh a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Aktobe 35%, so Irtysh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Irtysh and 1.2 for Aktobe (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Irtysh are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.82 for Aktobe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Irtysh vs Aktobe Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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