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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 14:00

FK Tobol Kostanay

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kaisar

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-18.4%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.9%1-111.7%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-18.2%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 61.7% 1.62 -15.9%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 21.4% 20.8% 4.80 +1.6%

Over 2.5 43.1% 55.6% 1.80 -22.4%

Over 3.5 20.7% 35.3% 2.83 -24.9%

BTTS 47.2% 57.1% 1.75 -17.4%

Home O1.5 39.7% 59.2% 1.69 -32.9%

Away O1.5 18.2% 26.7% 3.74 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 28.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.9%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Tobol Kostanay1.4

Kaisar0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY · PPG 2.22

KAISAR · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FK Tobol Kostanay (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.9%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Kaisar (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay face Kaisar in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Tobol Kostanay a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Kaisar 21%, so FK Tobol Kostanay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FK Tobol Kostanay and 0.7 for Kaisar (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Tobol Kostanay are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.00 for Kaisar. This match finished 3-2.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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